Links

·         Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: No Such Thing as Risk? - July 30, 2012 http://bit.ly/Q9yZps

·         A modest proposal: Treat banks like tobacco companies http://bit.ly/M8oNIQ

·         When Craigslist Blocks Innovations - Disruptions - NYTimes.com http://bit.ly/Q9z6kZ

·         Neuroscience and Moral Responsibility http://bit.ly/Q9z4JH

·         Income Inequality Killed The Music Business | The Big Picture http://bit.ly/LXilZG

 

London Olympics opening ceremony(chart]

 

Via: Reuters       

FW: Wait – The Useful Art of Procrastination

Feed: The Big Picture
Posted on: Sunday, July 29, 2012 9:43 PM
Author: Barry Ritholtz
Subject: Wait – The Useful Art of Procrastination

 

Frank Partnoy ex-Wall Street derivative trader and self-confessed procrastinator, reveals the science behind our decision-making disasters and successes, and argues that decisions of all kinds, whether 'snap' or long-term, benefit from being made at the last possible moment. Listen to the podcast of the full event including audience Q&A: http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-events/2012/wait-the-useful-art-o… Our events are made possible with the support of our Fellowship. Support us by donating or applying to become a Fellow.

View article...

Stormy weather and CPG sales[chart]

Via: Nielsen

Links

• How to Write http://nyti.ms/QNQhtF
• Is Algebra Necessary? http://nyti.ms/LZgDST 
• Banks Are The “Achilles’ Heel of Capitalism” http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/07/banks-achilles-heel-of-capitalism/ … 
• The Social Century: 100 Years of Talking, Watching, Reading and Writing in America - Derek Thompson - The Atlantic http://bit.ly/Q2xp8T 
• "Be a surfer. Watch the ocean. Figure out where the big waves are breaking and adjust accordingly." @37signals 
• I don't think of the past. The only thing that matters is the everlasting present. — W. Somerset Maugham #quotes 
• 2012 Canada International Childrens Art Festival pic.twitter.com/JiHaglzo 
• Mad Descent? pic.twitter.com/jr3zlpSs
•  First-Year Analyst Dress Code - Finance and Accounting Jobs News and Advice http://bit.ly/LWcr6n 
• Ackman Protege Ferguson to Leave Pershing to Start Fund - Businessweek http://bit.ly/PSsDuF 
• East River Monster Pictures - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LT0zCj 
• Checklist of Errors | The Big Picture http://bit.ly/PNoAQi 
•  

The shared experience of absurdity

Links

• 43 Signs That The London Olympics Will Be Remembered As A Complete Disaster - Business Insiderhttp://bit.ly/PCtAqR
• This Ex-IMF Economist Probably Won't Be Asking Christine Lagarde For A Recommendation - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LJUmNr
• The Evolution of the Web http://bit.ly/LIUW9H
• Here Are 20 Mathematicians Responsible For The Modern World - Business Insiderhttp://bit.ly/PymSSx
• The 11 Leadership Secrets You've Never Heard About - Forbes http://bit.ly/Lx9ON0
• The Lure of the Fairy Tale : The New Yorkerhttp://bit.ly/LCa1cQ

Finding the story inside the painting

via: TED

BEERMARKET[infographic]

via: reuters

HIV in America

Via: Reuters

FW: The Power of the Introvert in Your Office

 

 

Feed: HBR.org
Posted on: Thursday, July 19, 2012 5:06 PM
Author: HBR IdeaCast
Subject: The Power of the Introvert in Your Office

 

An interview with Susan Cain, author of Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that Can't Stop Talking. Download this podcast A written transcript will be available by July 27.

View article...

Links

• INFOGRAPHIC: Mapping the Politics of the Social Web | Engage http://bit.ly/PNJjFL
• What is an infographic? http://bit.ly/PmA5xM
• Lenovo CEO Gives Bonus Away - Business Insider http://bit.ly/OeZVAZ
• Should Milk Be Removed From School Lunches? | Healthland | TIME.com http://bit.ly/OeRBRM
• Thomas Jefferson, Steve Jobs, and the Rule of 3 - Forbes http://bit.ly/OdMOSP
• The Future of Manufacturing Is in America, Not China - By Vivek Wadhwa | Foreign Policy http://bit.ly/LCa0pj
• French soft drink makers unveil ‘DSK’ aphrodisiac beverage | The Raw Story http://bit.ly/LyQIRU

Links

The Church of Internet Piracy - Businessweek http://bit.ly/Ph4Fc8

How the Mormons Make Money - Businessweek http://bit.ly/RXQdW6

Marketing Wonders: Foods That Never Expire: Long-Lived Brands - Bloomberg http://bit.ly/LrVpg5

The 6 People You Need in Your Corner - Forbes http://bit.ly/NvCF13

Michael Bloomberg Biography - Business Insider http://bit.ly/PrGo32

Peek Inside Bloomberg's Gleaming Mothership, Where Billions Are Made - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LyKMbz

Man with ‘world’s biggest penis’ stopped at SFO security | SFGate Blog | an SFGate.com blog http://bit.ly/PsuRRc

French soft drink makers unveil ‘DSK’ aphrodisiac beverage | The Raw Story http://bit.ly/LyQIRU

What a doctor taught me about black swans

If you haven’t already heard about Dr. Michael Burry, the prominent hedge fund manager who ran Scion Capital and posted huge gains from his bets against the credit markets; be sure to read up about him here.

Today, I just want to highlight something critical that I learned about Black Swans while reading up on one of Burry's investor letters since I found it quite fascinating. Burry stated that a ‘Black Swan’ in the economic / financial sense has three basic features:

• Its unpredictable 
• Carries a massive impact 
• And after the fact, most people find an explanation that makes it appear less random, and somehow justify that it was highly predictable 

Burry was once travelling on an extended vacation trip with his family and saw real life black swans. He couldn't believe it at first, but just like everyone who tries to justify and make things look less random after, he realized that he should have known about the flock of black swans that reside at castle of Leeds in Kent, and if he'd looked it up or had done some research about where he was travelling, it would have been obvious to him, and not unpredictable at all.

But the problem is that such events are always explainable in hindsight, but can never be foretold by history.
A common problem with people is that they tend to focus on what conventions say can be calculated, and they tend to miss the uncalculated and untimely aka Black swans. 

At the end of the day, those with the most unconventional view end up on the winning side of the trade. In a group of average investors, many foresee a decline in the value of the assets, but when they realize that those were terrific companies not so long ago, their greed of missing the bottom kicks in, and they eventually get punished for this bias.

So if you were to ever bump into Burry in California someday, don’t bother asking him – “Do you see another Black Swan coming?” Because his answer would be plain and simple –

“Damn birds fill my skies.”

US Drought[chart]

 

Via: Knowledge effect Reuters

Copernicus Paradox

Nicolas Copernicus was the first person to formulate the idea that the earth is not the center of the universe and that there were countless galaxies and planets out there, and we were mildly a speck of dust in the sand; but this idea can be extended to how we see the world through our eyes and gives us a chance to recalibrate our thoughts.

But everything we see which is not to our scale doesn’t necessarily mean that its more interesting. The paradox lies in the fact that if we’re the only species that we know of who can make such observations, our ability to observe such things doesn’t make us that insignificant after all.

Even though you might see yourself as insignificant in this big world, the fact that you observed it, makes you significant, and that’s what you stand for in this universe.

 

Be well.

Global Auto maker value($)[chart]

 

VIA: Reuters

Put all eggs in one basket

Carnegie was one of the last tycoons of the industrial revolution. And if there’s one thing he didn’t believe in, it was diversification. He didn’t make his millions by spreading his risk all across the board, but by building a deep understanding of one skill, industry and company.

 

“Don't put all your eggs in one basket’ is all wrong. I tell you, put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket. It is trying to carry too many baskets that breaks most eggs in this country. He who carries three baskets must put one on his head, which is apt to tumble and trip him up”

 

This is indeed true and extremely relevant to all spectrums of life. If you try and juggle too many things, regardless of how rewarding they are, you’re bound to tumble. If you want to succeed in any line, pick one, master it, and the adulation will follow shortly.

 

How many baskets are you juggling?

Cognitive Biases[presentation]

Cognitive Biases - A Visual Study Guide

US Debt ownership[chart]

Via : Reuters

Links

·         The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math - Derek Thompson - The Atlantic http://bit.ly/OBuH9H

·         The Evolution of the Batman Symbol Over Seven Decades - Kasia Cieplak-Mayr von Baldegg - The Atlantic http://bit.ly/Pheh6N

·         Labor Dept. Tightens Security for Market-Sensitive Data http://bit.ly/PhdVwY

·         Why Is It Hard to Make Friends Over 30? http://bit.ly/PhboCJ

·         Is Stanford Too Close to Silicon Valley? : The New Yorker http://bit.ly/LrsfxD

·         16 Words That Will Make You Sound Like A Wall Street Hotshot - Business Insider http://bit.ly/Pf1oKn

·         Hillary Clinton Is A Badass: 20 Photos That Show Why - Business Insider http://bit.ly/Pf0a1P

·         '7 Habits' author Stephen Covey dies after cycling accident http://bit.ly/MtFyE6

·         Giant graph of history of ideas | http://bit.ly/LrTWv7

·         Refined dining http://bit.ly/KNKZNq

 

[chart]more coal less coal?

Via: EIA

Links

·         Famous Last Words Before Executions - Business Insider http://bit.ly/OHH2pu

·         Flying drones getting smaller, smarter, cheaper, and scarier | Crave - CNET http://bit.ly/LqkzQU

·         32 Ways To Quickly And Easily Improve Your Life - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LkXz64

·         25 Foods You'll Never Be Able To Eat Again http://bit.ly/oShyVy

·         The Best Strategy for Reducing Stress - Peter Bregman - Harvard Business Review http://bit.ly/NgbAAZ

·         Jeff Gundlach Presentation: 'Financial Expressionism' - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LTeJVa

·         Yes, College Essays Are Ruining Our Economy - David Silverman - Harvard Business Review http://bit.ly/LhHlL1

·         Coffins & Coffee: Starbucks to Open Inside Upstate Funeral Home | WSPA http://bit.ly/Mjn4WB

 

Charts[global urbanization]

Here’s 10 charts from Mckinsey’s massive urbanization report

VIA:McKinseyGI

Olympics: No chips for you!

This a sign at a food outlet in one of the Olympic venues (h/t Kash Farooq):



So, yes, as we said, the Olympics are all about the human spirit, competition and glory!

via: FT

Contradiction of Wisdom

Almost every wise saying that I've ever heard has some sort of wise(or unwise) saying to contradict it. Take the following as an example:
- Actions speak louder than words.
-> The pen is mightier than the sword.

- Look before you leap.
-> He who hesitates is lost.

The more, the merrier.
-> Two’s company; three’s a crowd.

This inertia of self-correcting wisdom isn't anything new. In fact, as you experience every day life, you'll realize that not only do others provide contradicting wisdom; you will contradict yourself as well, and I find that to be quite fascinating as well.

Its not what we believe in today or tomorrow that actually makes the difference, but instead, its our ability to apply the wisdom and make the most of it is what actually drives change. 

I'll leave it up to you to decide which side of the wisdom coin to pick, but make sure you experience it to the fullest.

'Data is' vs. 'Data are'?

I'm not sure which one you prefer, but its quite fascinating to see how both the singular and plural forms of data have evolved over the years in books.

via: Ngram

Links

Extraordinary Microscope Photographs - The Big Picture - Boston.com http://bit.ly/LJpzRL

TASTE TEST: We Try Heinz's Fancy New Balsamic Ketchup - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LPZNXJ

The Verdict On Taco Bell's New Cantina Menu - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LPZyvL

7 Reasons Your Neighbors Have More Money Than You http://bit.ly/JfpQFw

25 Things I’ve Learned In My 20s | Thought Catalog http://bit.ly/KIPGGX

Stop Using Your Mouse | Wall Street Oasis http://bit.ly/LlHU6u

Yes, College Essays Are Ruining Our Economy - David Silverman - Harvard Business Review http://bit.ly/LhHlL1

Coffins & Coffee: Starbucks to Open Inside Upstate Funeral Home | WSPA http://bit.ly/Mjn4WB

Jeff Gundlach Presentation: 'Financial Expressionism' - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LTeJVa

The Best Strategy for Reducing Stress - Peter Bregman - Harvard Business Review http://bit.ly/NgbAAZ

EU VAT rates

Finally, we see some austerity in the EU with PIIGS increasing VAT rates in 2012.

via: Reuters

Food on the Floor - Do You Eat It?

via : SFWeekly

Links

• Carnism and Why You Eat the Animals You Do - Lifestyle - GOOD http://bit.ly/kq2MaI
• 'The Dark Knight Rises' Exclusive Comcast Trailer - Business Insider http://bit.ly/S0jYpl
• Goldman Sachs | The Rise of Growth Markets [infographic] http://bit.ly/H73157
• Q: Why Do We Wear Pants? A: Horses http://bit.ly/OApHi4
• DIY iPad Cases - Business Insider http://bit.ly/LinKKE
• How to (Finally) Quit Your Job - Daniel Gulati - Harvard Business Review http://bit.ly/MjXyAB

Spreadsheets: A love story

I was only eighteen when I got my hands on a spreadsheet. I got my first job as an audit assistant for a small accounting firm and I became addicted to working with them. But as it goes for an accountant, the most difficult tasks are addition, subtraction, and if it really gets complicated sometimes, multiplication and division.

But when I hit university, I wanted to apply my knowledge of spreadsheets and learn even more from them; and to my very excitement, Microsoft launched the spanking new MS Excel 2007. I got my copy as soon as it came out, and I was hooked. Sometimes I would get up at night just to do some random charting and graphing and play with different functions just for fun.

A few months in school, I found out that there was a university course which taught introductory spreadsheets and other MS Office tools, but to my disappointment, I couldn't take it because I already had a full course load. Interestingly though, there was a Teaching Assistant position open for that class, so I sent the person recruiting for it an email and got an interview.

The interview was very informal, and the lead instructor asked me a few questions and I knew it like the back of my hand. Of course, I never told him that I never actually took the class, and he wasn't careful enough to do the due-diligence and check whether I did or not, so I got the job. There I was, 19 years old, first year of university and an Excel TA. Life couldn't have been better.

Over the next two years I continued to TA and became sought after for my spreadsheet skills. I also joined another tech not-for-profit as as spreadsheet instructor and continued to teach. But then came the real challenge, my first finance internship at a Fortune 200 company. I was excited and scared at the same time being concerned about what the expectations would be like. 

As the summer went on, I gained even more technical skills and knew my stuff like nobody else. I also became a mentor to the other interns and  they looked up to me to share my vast knowledge in using this complex powerhouse of a tool called Excel. The people at the company loved me, and my reputation was stellar; oh...the adulation.

But now six years from the day that I first started using spreadsheets, I have to say that unfortunately, spreadsheets aren't the best way to excel(no pun intended) in an organization. In fact, its my assessment that numbers are purely data points that help you translate business ideas, strategies, frameworks into a more quantifiable structure so that the boss can some day toot his horn and tell his boss that he "increased or decreased something by x % and how that immensely helped the organization".

What actually is important, on the other hand, is to bring ideas to the table, work with them, and execute them ruthlessly and only use spreadsheets as a tool to quantify and report results to investors and all that jazz.

But to me personally, (even after all this self-actualization of reality and knowing why just being good at technical tools isn't good enough)spreadsheets will always be close to my heart, something that I can open up in my spare time and use to play with an ever expanding library of data sets online. Other tools such as Tableau Public, Microstrategy have tried to lure me away, but to no avail. To them I say-"don't bother, spreadsheets are my first love, and like everyone else, no one forgets their first love".

If you've never discovered a love for a tool like I have, I encourage you to do so, and soon you will realize that it is possible to enjoy something like this as well. Most people will tell you that an experience like this, is stark, quaint, and nerdy, but I'll tell you what, its my love story, and it was absolutely worth it.

[chart]Airbus vs. Boing

via : Reuters

Links

·         Entertainment - Adam Rogers - What 'Batman' Taught Me About Being a Good Dad - The Atlantic http://bit.ly/NgeRjK

·         Big Pharma’s Big Fines - ProPublica http://bit.ly/N7hIb2

·         Wall Street Quants Owe a Debt to Obscure French Student - Bloomberg http://bit.ly/OtYbms

·         Man vs. Sheep - a New Zealand Myth? — DataMarket http://bit.ly/RS7vEj

·         Top 10 that I use to justify my massive obsession for coffee | Thank you BI | http://bit.ly/PIEQnK

·         The Mathematics Of Beauty « OkTrends http://bit.ly/NfgfTV

·         Supermarket Sushi at Whole Foods: A Surreal Encounter With Wimbledon Finalist Andy Murray - Forbes http://bit.ly/PDpwbT

 

[chart] Global Language Diversity

Higher number indicates greater diversity.

Via: Statplanet

Life lessons from 'To Kill a Mockingbird'

Harper Lee’s book ‘To Kill a Mockingbird’ was published July 11, 1960. On its annivarsary, here are some life lessons from the book:

1)      People are people, regardless of race or social class.  This is the biggest lesson from this book

2)      You need to get to look at things from other people’s perspective.  When Atticus has trouble with her new teacher Miss Caroline, Atticus suggests that you need to look at things from others’ perspectives in order to better get along with them

3)      Courage is not just physical, but also mental.  Atticus describes Mrs. Dubose as the bravest person he knows because he battled her illness and her addiction, and died on her own terms

4)      Children should be respected.  Atticus and Scout both give Uncle Jack a lesson in how to raise children.  Jack does not have children, and does not understand that they deserve respect just as adults do.  He learns to listen to children and not take action before he has the whole story

5)      You have to follow your own moral code, regardless of what others believe.  Atticus explains to Scout that he has to defend Tom because it’s the right thing to do, whether or not others agree with him

6)      People are not always what they seem.  When Scout and Jem meet Boo for the first time, they realize that he is gentle and shy but also brave.  He saved the children at great physical and emotional risk

7)      Don’t assume that someone can’t do something just because you haven’t seen it.  Scout and Jem are embarrassed about their father’s age, and they think he can’t do anything.  When they seem him shoot the rabid dog, they realize that there is more to him than meets the eye

8)      Societal change is slow, but can happen.  After the trial, Jem is devastated that the jury did not do the right thing.  However the fact that the jury deliberated means more than just respect for his father.  Atticus helped them to see Tom as a person, at least briefly

9)      Part of growing up is learning about society, but not necessarily accepting it.  Scout learns a great deal about society in Maycomb and in the Great Depression in general.  As she grows, she learns how the world works but also learns not to blindly accept it.  She is still a nonconformist, living life on her own terms

10)   Being a lady comes with responsibility.  Scout comes to understand Aunt Alexandra’s perspective, and realize that as she gets older she’ll be responsible for taking her place in Maycomb society

Via: enotes

US Postal Service Rates(1991-2007)

 

Source: U.S. Postal Service, \United States Domestic Postage Rate: Recent History\""

and unpublished data.

See Internet site http://www.usps.com/rates/welcome.htm

 

FW: Instagram vs. Greece

Feed: The Big Picture
Posted on: Tuesday, July 10, 2012 3:00 PM
Author: Barry Ritholtz
Subject: Instagram vs. Greece

 

Poor ol' Greece. Lucky Instagram. We live in interesting times. Click to enlarge: Source: Gapingvoid Art

View article...

Lottery Sales (1980-2006)

Source: TLF Publications, Inc., Boyds, MD, 2007 World Lottery Almanac (copyright).

Life got you lemons?

Twitter Analytics

Some twitter analytics on my account:

 

 

Links

• Requiem for a Russian Spy - By Milton Bearden | Foreign Policy http://bit.ly/RKuLUz
• Even Scientists Can't Find Jobs In America Today - Business Insider http://bit.ly/RHSLYy
• The Most Important Numbers In The World - Business Insider http://bit.ly/PAhz7f
• 3 Annoying Emailing Habits - Business Insider http://bit.ly/NbJSl8

Peak of Capitalism[chart]

Google ngram captures how books mention the word capitalism over the years. Are we calling it a peak yet?


via: ngram

Marketing is still broken

How could everything be best selling? Starbucks could have done better.

strategic humor

Ok boss, Im ready to manage this thing call "Twitter"

 

 

Via: HBR

Inside Job: Narrated by Matt Damon

Feed: The Big Picture
Posted on: Monday, July 09, 2012 12:08 AM
Author: Barry Ritholtz
Subject: Inside Job, Narrated by Matt Damon (Full Length HD)

 

'Inside Job' provides a comprehensive analysis of the global financial crisis of 2008, which at a cost over $20 trillion, caused millions of people to lose their jobs and homes in the worst recession since the Great Depression, and nearly resulted in a global financial collapse. Through exhaustive research and extensive interviews with key financial insiders, politicians, journalists, and academics, the film traces the rise of a rogue industry which has corrupted politics, regulation, and academia. It was made on location in the United States, Iceland, England, France, Singapore, and China. Inside Job, Narrated by Matt Damon (Full Length HD) from jwrock on Vimeo. For up to date information for preparing for a financial collapse go to preppernews.net/

View article...

Links

• Why Is The 'God Particle' Such A Big Deal? - Business Insiderhttp://bit.ly/RlRCWr
• 21 Ways You Should Take Advantage Of Your 20s | Thought Catalog http://bit.ly/PkU95L
• FRED Gold Charts - Business Insider http://bit.ly/RnvAmb
• The Claim: Chocolate Is an Aphrodisiac - New York Timeshttp://bit.ly/PlZAS4
• Romanian politics: My name is Paste. Copy Paste. | The Economist http://bit.ly/Rfjlbh
• INFOGRAPHIC: The Business oF Fireworks And July 4th - Business Insider http://bit.ly/PfQMNx
• e-Newsletter June 2012: Want to be CEO? - Center for Creative Leadership http://bit.ly/Op8N9s
• 11 Things You Didn't Know About Pinball History - Popular Mechanics http://bit.ly/P9t3P3