Sunday, July 15, 2018

Some things I read recently

Aaron Sittig: Then pretty much unheralded and not talked about much, Facebook launched in February of 2004.

Dustin Moskovitz (Zuckerberg's original right-hand man): Back then there was a really common problem that now seems trivial. It was basically impossible to think of a person by name and go and look up their picture. All of the dorms at Harvard had individual directories called face books—some were printed, some were online, and most were only available to the students of that particular dorm. So we decided to create a unified version online and we dubbed it “The Facebook” to differentiate it from the individual ones.

There was something a little rough about MySpace.

Mark Zuckerberg: So MySpace had almost a third of their staff monitoring the pictures that got uploaded for pornography. We hardly ever have any pornography uploaded. The reason is that people use their real names on Facebook.

Adam D’Angelo (Zuckerberg's high school hacking buddy): Real names are really important.

Aaron Sittig: We got this clear early on because of something that was established as a community principle at the Well: You own your own words. And we took it farther than the Well. We always had everything be traceable back to a specific real person.


https://www.wired.com/story/sex-beer-and-coding-inside-facebooks-wild-early-days

Ding Yan Zhong — known to industry insiders as “Mr. Ding” — has managed the flow of fireworks for a decade through the two companies he founded, Shanghai Huayang and Firstrans International.

He has broadened his empire by consolidating power in China, expanding his reach into California and becoming the most important player in fireworks logistics on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

Now, Ding’s control of the fireworks delivery chain is nearly complete, according to two dozen shipping and fireworks executives, more than 40,000 fireworks shipping records, numerous court documents and other sources.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/the-largest-supplier-of-american-fireworks-is-from-china/?utm_term=.9e9cf57676b6



The most important component of good management, good leadership, and good stewardship is making sure that you have diversity of mind. When you recruit young people from different universities—and we generally hire around 400 to 450 young people [a year]—they all can’t come from an Ivy League school. You have to start from the foundation that people come from different experiences, and they have different opportunities. If you don’t interview a diverse group of people from different universities, different state schools, and different parts in the world, you are not going to get diversity of mind. If you hire all business majors, all engineers, or all people who have one field of expertise, you’re going to fall down.


There are limits to this archenemy motif. Alibaba and Tencent attack the market differently, in ways that have often allowed them to grow without butting heads. Alibaba’s is largely a strategy of buying controlling stakes in businesses that are a fit with its commerce platform; Tencent takes hundreds of minority stakes in an array of businesses to win over partners and gain access to their technology. What’s more, the competition is hardly a zerosum game, thanks to the rapidly expanding Chinese middle class.
Still, the companies can and do play hardball. In an economy in which e-commerce is dominant in ways unthinkable in the U.S., each company stymies the other’s payment service on their main platforms. And when Tencent and Alibaba sign on investment bankers, they reportedly make it a condition that the bankers work exclusively for them. (Many companies impose such restrictions, but they have greater consequences coming from Tencent and Alibaba given that the two also are major venture capital investors and the prohibitions could impinge on work with the companies in which they invest.) Even if the world is big enough for both of them, Tencent and Alibaba increasingly are in conflict. “Until recently, everyone played in their own sandbox,” says Deborah Weinswig, New York–based CEO of the China-focused retail consultancy Coresight Research. “Now the sand is starting to spill over.”


HAS THE INTERNET failed? Sitting in his office at Christ Church College,
Oxford, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the world wide web, has his
answer ready: “I wouldn’t say the internet has failed with a capital F, but
it has failed to deliver the positive, constructive society many of us had
hoped for.”
Two decades ago he would have scoffed at the idea that the internet
and the web would do anythingbutmake thisplaneta betterplace. In his
autobiography written in the late 1990s, “Weaving the Web”, he concluded: “The experience of seeing the web take off by the grassroots effort of
thousands gives me tremendous hope that…we can collectively make
our world what we want.”

At the heart of their disenchantment, this special report will argue,
is that the internet has become much more “centralised” (in the tech
crowd’sterminology) than itwaseven ten yearsago. Both in the Westand
in China, the activities this global network of networks makes possible
are dominated by a few giants, from Facebook to Tencent. In his latest
book, “The Square and the Tower”, Niall Ferguson, a historian, explains
that this pattern—a disruptive new networkbeing infiltrated by a new hierarchy—has many historical precedents. Examples range from the invention ofthe printing press to the Industrial Revolution.

Source: Economist June 2018

Monday, July 9, 2018

Some things I read recently - 09/07/2018

Access to management is obviously not easy at FANG. But one of the top value investing firms has invested in Amazon/Tenecent ... is value investing finally changing? 

Source: Sequoia transcript 06/2018

Some interesting things I read recently


The episode hits on exactly what Hoffman, Hilbe, and Nowak describe in their paper. “Donations are never fully anonymous,” they write. “These donations are often revealed to the recipient, the inner circle of friends or fellow do-gooders,” and these “few privy observers, in turn, do not only learn that the donor is generous” but are “also likely to infer that the generosity was not motivated by immediate fame or the desire for recognition from the masses…”—exactly what everyone seemed to figure was true of David, to his chagrin.

What’s intriguing about anonymous giving, and other behaviors apparently designed to obscure good traits and acts, like modesty, is that it’s “hard to reconcile with standard evolutionary accounts of pro-social behavior,” the researchers write. Donations fall under a form of cooperation called “indirect reciprocity.”

http://nautil.us/blog/larry-david-and-the-game-theory-of-anonymous-donations

On the Model 3 body line on a Tuesday afternoon in early June, everything is still. Tesla Inc. is just coming off a week of downtime during which workers added a new production line, improved ventilation after a fire in the paint shop, and overhauled machines across the factory. But even after the changes, there are kinks to work out.

Suddenly, dozens of robots snap into frenzied action, picking up door panels, welding window pillars, taking measurements, and on and on. This robotic dance is a visceral representation of what Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has dubbed “Alien Dreadnought,” a code name for the factory that evokes an early 20th century warship, but with extraterrestrials.

Tesla says there isn’t any single problem slowing production down now. Instead, the heavy reliance on automation and new production methods have created a galaxy of smaller problems that must each be addressed individually. Musk’s claim is that once the process is tuned, the company will set a new standard for speed, precision, and scalability in manufacturing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-08/tesla-model-3-photos-of-elon-musk-s-factory-in-fremont

Croatia is about half as rich as Denmark (per capita GDP around $25,000 PPP-adjusted). But Croatia, or at least one very small part of it, used to be much richer: what is now Dubrovnik, and what was then (usually) called Ragusa, was once a little Mediterranean Singapore. In contrast to Denmark, Ragusa was a small trading port and a city-state, and its elite was a trading elite. What kind of elite would one want in a trading port? In an age where long-distance trade was dangerous and uncertain, anyone who controlled a vital route could extract rents.

What this suggests to me is that the value of institutions over endowments has been somewhat overplayed in the recent economic literature. To be sure, ‘institutions’ (in this instance, the characteristics of political elite) can be more or less appropriate to a particular endowment of the factors of production (broadly conceived), and to the historical circumstances. If Britain had not specialised in manufactures in the nineteenth century—and hence begun to import butter from Denmark—then the demand for a butter export industry may not have been sufficient for Denmark’s excellent institutions to matter all that much
http://decompressinghistory.com/post/croatia-vs-denmark/


“The first word out of everybody’s mouths in meetings is, ‘How do we deal with Netflix?’ ” says one longtime TV-industry executive. “‘How do we compete with Netflix? What are they doing?’ ” Disney’s pending purchase of much of 20th Century Fox’s film and TV assets — which has prompted a counterbid by Comcast, parent company of NBCUniversal — is in no small part a reaction to the rise of Netflix.
Mysterious though it may seem, Netflix operates by a simple logic, long understood by such tech behemoths as Facebook and Amazon: Growth begets more growth begets more growth. When Netflix adds more content, it lures new subscribers and gets existing ones to watch more hours of Netflix. As they spend more time watching, the company can collect more data on their viewing habits, allowing it to refine its bets about future programming. “More shows, more watching; more watching, more subs; more subs, more revenue; more revenue, more content,” explains Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s chief content officer.
Netflix doesn’t necessarily care if you binge-watch an entire season of a show within a couple days of it launching. “We’re not trying to encourage that,” Sarandos says. “The completion of a single episode is a more important trigger. We wouldn’t be looking at, ‘Are people plowing through it in the first weekend?,’ because the number of people who do that is pretty slim.” But one metric I heard repeatedly during my visits to Netflix was 28-day viewership — basically how many people completed a full season of a show within the first four weeks it’s on the service. Sarandos also tells me the company looks at which shows new subscribers watch first: It lets them know if a show is driving people to sign up for Netflix.
“When we are not growing the subscriber base or hours of engagement per subscriber,” he says. “When you start seeing them plateau, then you say there’s a point of diminishing returns on the continued expansion of the library. But we are not seeing any evidence in either metric yet.” Sarandos also points out that while Netflix users are spending more time watching the service than ever, it’s still “a very small portion” of the overall amount of time we spend on our TVs and cell phones. “There’s tons of growth in user screen time on Netflix,” he says. “If you think about the addressable market for Netflix as being paid TV households, it’s relatively small. Everyone with a phone has a screen and access to the internet. That is our addressable market. The world’s taste, and the world’s time, is what we’re after.”

http://www.vulture.com/2018/06/how-netflix-swallowed-tv-industry.html


Saturday, April 28, 2018

Linkfest

Best tweet so far: 
Starbucks: America’s culture wars come to the café https://t.co/P3Lowm3v4C
RT @borismsilver: @morganhousel @NTmoney At what point can one participate? How much of the value creation occurs in public vs. in private? In private goes to accredited+ only
"Because the returns have moved"
https://t.co/daYozhDogp
"What’s behind the falling number of public companies?"
https://t.co/vzZwKtssWIRT @morganhousel: @borismsilver @NTmoney That's all a separate topic from what began. Blockchain and venture capital are not interchangeable terms. The ability for the masses to partake in the wealth creation of innovation has been around since the 1600s. Should add that I'm not a crypto bear.
RT @Act_tw0: @morganhousel @NTmoney A lot of publicly traded companies are pretty damn innovative & can create wealth for anyone w/ an E*TRADE account if they know where to look 👀 📈
Bloomberg Presents The David Rubenstein Show, Peer to Peer Conversation... https://t.co/5kDAOyVpHT via @YouTube
History with David M. Rubenstein: A Conversation with Drew Gilpin Faust https://t.co/RIqJVqxxkB via @YouTube
Sara Blakely, Founder and CEO, Spanx https://t.co/bunEa9GcUW via @YouTube
RT @HaydenCapital: A Rare Interview with Capital Today's founder, Xu Xin:
https://t.co/SG8PLedwCc(can use Google to translate)
She's an early investor in $JD, $NTES, Wahaha, Three Squirrels, $VIPS, and others. I took some notes, & thought others may find it useful. Notes are attached. https://t.co/UB4PjrAjAX
RT @pierpont_morgan: Coup attempt in Saudi Arabia?
Palantir Knows Everything About You https://t.co/RJmZHDqqIC
Germany and Immigration: The Changing Face of the Country - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International https://t.co/x7QmiW7JUe
Don’t Think like A Millionaire, Act Like A Billionaire - The Big Picture https://t.co/PXQPMxmAOQ
Hugh Hendry’s Life After Hedge Funds | Institutional Investor https://t.co/AOuXS6p2hr
OLPC’s $100 laptop was going to change the world — then it all went wrong - The Verge https://t.co/gf9IpXC2rj
Humans, Gods and Technology - VPRO documentary - 2017 https://t.co/EtpKuWPDtq via @YouTube
10 Tips from the Master of Impro! | Actors & Performers https://t.co/SvXbCNgawZ
Open, Closed, and Privacy https://t.co/75Gof9SaXv via @stratechery
The Ridiculous Saga Of Lance Armstrong, The Cheater Who Became An Enemy Of The State https://t.co/ztglZSgUK4
The Crypto Landscape with Arianna Simpson [Invest Like the Best Ep. 84] - @millennial_inv https://t.co/94gGfd9bU6

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Some fascinating things I read last week

"I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical."

Source: https://twitter.com/jposhaughnessy/status/974461199097171968

Recently asked, “What are the ten biggest ideas that changed your life?” Great/hard question. Here's where I landed... "1) Imago Dei: Every person is inherently valuable independent of behavior and beliefs. Everyone matters. Treat people accordingly, without exception."
contd...

Source: https://twitter.com/BrentBeshore/status/970661400786870272

"Since October, a mysterious flying object has been seen moving through the skies over the South Island of New Zealand. It looks like a cross between a small plane and a drone, with a series of small rotor blades along each wing that allow it to take off like a helicopter and then fly like a plane. To those on the ground, it has always been unclear whether there was a pilot aboard."

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/business/dealbook/flying-taxis-larry-page.html

Startup investors have extraordinary incentives for correcting obsolete beliefs. If they can realize before other investors that some apparently unpromising startup isn't, they can make a huge amount of money. But the incentives are more than just financial. Investors' opinions are explicitly tested: startups come to them and they have to say yes or no, and then, fairly quickly, they learn whether they guessed right. The investors who say no to a Google (and there were several) will remember it for the rest of their lives.

Anyone who must in some sense bet on ideas rather than merely commenting on them has similar incentives. Which means anyone who wants such incentives can have them, by turning their comments into bets: if you write about a topic in some fairly durable and public form, you'll find you worry much more about getting things right than most people would in a casual conversation.


Source: http://www.paulgraham.com/ecw.html

Many of the park’s managers, primarily Sri Lankans brought in to impart the efficiencies achieved in their country’s sweatshops, would view this comment as epitomizing one of their main complaints: Ethiopia’s history hasn’t equipped its citizens for the rigors of industry. “Ethiopia has never been colonized,” says David Müller, who moved from Sri Lanka (his name comes from his German father) to be the human resources manager for Hela-Indochine, a joint Chinese-Sri Lankan apparel venture in one of the park’s sheds. “There’s a sense of pride about that, and a little pushback comes with it.”

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-02/china-is-turning-ethiopia-into-a-giant-fast-fashion-factory

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Some fascinating things I read last week

On conducting music: 
All great conductors share this same ability to impose their will on an orchestra—and that, after all, is the heart of the matter. A conductor can be effective only if the orchestra does what he wants. It is not like a piano, whose notes automatically sound when the keys are pressed, but a living organism with a will of its own. Conducting, then, is first and foremost an act of persuasion, as Mauceri acknowledges:

The person who stands before a symphony orchestra is charged with something both impossible and improbable. The impossible part is herding a hundred musicians to agree on something, and the improbable part is that one does it by waving one’s hands in the air.

See here: https://www.instapaper.com/read/995003573/7199280

On China's scoring system :
If you live in the United States, you are by now accustomed to relinquishing your data to corporations. Credit card companies know when you run up bar tabs or buy sex toys. Facebook knows if you like Tasty cooking videos or Breitbart News. Uber knows where you go and how you behave en route. But Alipay knows all of these things about its users and more. Owned by Ant Financial, an affiliate of the massive Alibaba corporation, Alipay is sometimes called a super app. Its main competitor, WeChat, belongs to the social and gaming giant Tencent.
In 2015 Ant Financial was one of eight tech companies granted approval from the People’s Bank of China to develop their own private credit scoring platforms. Zhima Credit appeared in the Alipay app shortly after that. The service tracks your behavior on the app to arrive at a score between 350 and 950, and offers perks and rewards to those with good scores. Zhima Credit’s algorithm considers not only whether you repay your bills but also what you buy, what degrees you hold, and the scores of your friends. Like Fair and Isaac decades earlier, Ant Financial executives talked publicly about how a data-driven approach would open up the financial system to people who had been locked out, like students and rural Chinese. For the more than 200 million Alipay users who have opted in to Zhima Credit, the sell is clear: Your data will magically open doors for you.
An article on the portal Sohu.com explained that my score put me in the category of “common folk.” The page read: “Cultural level is not high. Retired or nearly retired.” In China, where many elderly lost out on years of education during the Cultural Revolution, this was not a compliment. According to Sohu, only 5 percent of the population had scores worse than mine.

Source: https://www.instapaper.com/read/994056493/7192903

On Snapchat: 
It’s clear why the show connected with him. Snapchat was initially best known for its disappearing messages, gaining it a reputation as the “sexting” app. But if it has one standout feature in 2017, it’s the app’s reality-warping lenses. Tap one button and pores are smoothed over, eyes enlarged and cheekbones sharpened; tap another and a dog’s nose and ears are superimposed on your face; tap a third and a dancing hotdog appears in your living room. “I think art has always played with this concept of reality,” Spiegel says, “and so I think it’s very exciting now that technology is playing a much bigger role in art.”
“On my Discover page, I have the Economist, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. And I have some new shows, one from CNN and one from NBC,” he says. “I would suggest to you that historically there’s always been a spectrum … We’d like to give you lots of choices in terms of the stories that you’d like to watch. Some of it will be very serious and some will be more lighthearted – and I think that speaks to the range of human expression.”

Source: https://www.instapaper.com/read/994984983/7192047

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Notes From: Satya Nadella. “Hit Refresh.”(6/9)

November 16, 2017 (page 141)

“Historically, Microsoft has struggled at times to get this balance right. We actually had a tablet before the iPad; we were well along the path toward an e-reader before the Kindle. But in some cases our software was ahead of the key components required for success, such as touchscreen hardware or broadband connectivity”


November 16, 2017 (page 152)

“It’s estimated that in the 1450s there were only about thirty thousand books in Europe—each one handcrafted by someone working in a monastery. The Gutenberg Bible was the first book produced using movable type technology, and within fifty years the number of books grew to an estimated 12 million, unleashing a renaissance in learning, science, and the arts.
That’s the same trajectory we need for AI. To get there we have to be inclusive, democratic. And so our vision is to build tools that have true artificial intelligence infused across agents, applications, services, and infrastructure:”


November 16, 2017 (page 154)

“Peter Lee is another gifted AI researcher and thinker at Microsoft. In a meeting one morning in his office, Peter reflected on something the journalist Geoffrey Willans once said. “You can never understand one language until you understand at least two.” Goethe went further. “He who does not know foreign languages does not know anything about his own.” Learning or improvement in one skill or mental function can positively influence another one. The effect is transfer learning, and it’s seen not only in human intelligence but also machine intelligence. Our team, for example, found that if we trained a computer to speak English, learning Spanish or another language became faster.”


Notes From: Satya Nadella. “Hit Refresh.” iBooks. 


Check out this book on the iBooks Store: https://itunes.apple.com/dk/book/hit-refresh/id1128878569?mt=11

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” iBooks. (6 /19 - 11/19)

November 18, 2017 

“Scott Peng dreamed of becoming an astronaut. He loved the idea of floating weightless above the earth, conducting trailblazing experiments that only a few dozen other humans had ever had the chance to perform.”


November 18, 2017 

“Then Chang Díaz learned something devastating about Peng: He was nearsighted. Chang Díaz hadn’t realised it earlier because Peng wore contact lenses. The brilliant Peng somehow had neglected to look up the credentials of successful astronauts.”


November 18, 2017 

“Peng joined the swelling army of engineers, mathematicians, and scientists heading to work on Wall Street.”


November 18, 2017 

“Peng typed up a quick five-page report, titled “Is Libor Broken?” To jazz it up, he stuck a modified Hamlet quote—“Something is rotten in the state of [Libor]”—at the top. Peng figured his report was going to cause a stir. After all, its clear implication was that banks were fudging their Libor data—an incendiary accusation, given Libor’s central place in the financial system. So he summoned his boss, an executive named Michael Schumacher, into a small meeting room. It was important to get his buy-in to ensure there wouldn’t be any blowback to Peng.
“I wrote something, and I think it might be a little controversial,” Peng said. Then he handed Schumacher the draft.
Schumacher scanned the report and then paused for a moment. “Go for it,” he said. The report was sent out to Citigroup’s clients, as well as a handful of reporters, on 10 April 2008.”


November 18, 2017 

“One of Peng’s colleagues angrily told him that he had just cost the bank $10 million. Plus, another official chimed in, the BBA was irate. Someone at the trade association had called that morning and was demanding that Citigroup retract Peng’s report. His colleagues were inclined to bow to the pressure rather than fight the powerful group. Peng replied that he would be happy to retract the report if anybody could identify inaccuracies in it. Nobody did, so the report stood. But that didn’t stop his colleagues from bad-mouthing him. “My personal view is that Scott Peng was rather distant to the whole process and would not really have known about the intricacies of Libor, not being an expert in the money markets,” Andrew Thursfield, Citigroup’s representative on the Libor oversight committee, would later declare.”


November 18, 2017 

“The entire BBA, for that matter, seemed out of its depth with Libor. At times, the frustration boiled over. Screaming matches erupted between the hapless Ewan and Mollenkamp, who perceived the BBA as trying to hide the increasingly obvious problems with its flagship product.
For her part, Knight wrote a typo-strewn e-mail to bank CEOs asking them to “secure specific posative comments” from research analysts and to make sure we “have them on side … We need to reinforce Libor.”


November 18, 2017 

“Maybe, she said, a trade group like the BBA shouldn’t be responsible for such an important financial benchmark? Perhaps regulators or central bankers should be involved in administering or at least overseeing it. She was greeted with blank stares. Nobody wanted to be responsible for this mess.”


November 18, 2017 

“For their next project, Mollenkamp and Whitehouse set out to prove that Libor was broken. They decided to look at an instrument called credit default swaps. These were basically insurance contracts between a bank and another party that paid out if a company defaulted on its debts. Investors used the instruments to protect themselves when they were buying corporate bonds.”


November 18, 2017 

“In any case, despite the increasing concerns about Libor, the Bank of England continued to rely on it. When it unveiled a new emergency lending program for British banks, it used Libor to determine the interest rates and fees banks would pay to participate. There was nothing the Americans could do—which is just how Hayes, his fellow traders, and the BBA liked it”


November 18, 2017 

“On the evening of 4 November, a senior official at the Bank of England, Paul Fisher, shot off a personal note to Ewan. It had been a long day at the central bank, with a global crisis raging. Fisher’s job included keeping tabs on the foreign-exchange market, which, thanks to the violent financial turbulence, had suddenly become a full-time occupation. But Fisher was preoccupied with an unrelated problem. He had read a Goldman Sachs research note earlier that day about Libor. Fisher was no expert on the benchmark, but he knew its definition: It was the rate at which banks thought they could borrow money from each other. The Goldman report had got the definition wrong, describing Libor as the rate at which banks loaned money to each other. When Fisher noticed the error, it got him thinking: How widespread was the confusion?”

November 28, 2017 

“There’s number one rule, if you go drinking, make sure you get in,” Aaron slurred. “That is the only rule…. It doesn’t matter if you go out drinking till four o’clock in the morning. Make it home, make it into work, and then people will send you home if you look like shit. But at least make the effort to make it in. That’s the only rule.”


Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” iBooks. 

Monday, December 4, 2017

Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” iBooks. (6/19)

November 5, 2017 

“Hayes was so open about, and preoccupied with, his strategy that he would change the status on his Facebook page to reflect his daily desires for Libor to move up or down, a self-deprecating poke at his nerdy fixation. At night, he dreamed of the rate. When it didn’t move in a favourable direction, Hayes often lost his composure, ranting to Alykulov that he didn’t understand why rival traders didn’t accede to his and his brokers’ requests.”


November 5, 2017 

“And so Hayes decided to get his younger stepbrother, Peter O’Leary, involved. O’Leary had come into Hayes’s life when Hayes was eleven years old and his mother remarried. O’Leary and his brother, Ben, moved in with Hayes and his younger brother, Robin. Hayes liked his new stepfather, Tim, and got along well with Peter and Ben. Now Peter was looking to follow in Hayes’s professional footsteps.”


November 5, 2017 

“The next day, Hayes sent O’Leary a reminder, referring to Darcy as O’Leary’s “mate.”
“Will do,” O’Leary responded. “For the record he’s definitely not my ‘mate’!” O’Leary was feeling a bit sheepish about making the request. “Dunno if he’ll do anything on it seeing as he doesn’t really know me and is massively more senior than me,” he cautioned.
“Well, no harm in asking!” Hayes typed.
O’Leary banged out a quick instant message to his colleague. “high 6m yen libor owuld be gd according to my brother!” The reply came back: “WILL DO MY BEST.”


November 5, 2017 

“Jeffrey Laydon was a computer geek turned salesman who, after attending a technical college in Milwaukee and spending five years as a consultant at Southwestern Bell, had moved to Florida in the mid-1980s.”


November 5, 2017 

“Balding, with ruddy cheeks, wire-rimmed glasses, and a sandy moustache, Laydon had a couple of hobbies. One was sailing; he loved taking a boat out on Lake Monroe, where he was a member of the local sailing association. Another passion was investing. From the comfort of his home, he traded stocks, options, and futures via an online brokerage account. He was doing well enough that he toyed with the idea of quitting his job and becoming a full-time day trader, someone who could even help educate other wannabe investors.”


November 5, 2017 

“By 2006, Laydon had discovered a new area to wager on: Japanese interest rates. He didn’t know much about Japan, but derivatives linked to the yen were becoming increasingly popular after the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, and he decided to give it a go”


November 5, 2017 

“n the years leading up to the financial crisis, public pension funds had been growing increasingly bold and creative in the gambles they made with their members’ money. Markets were booming, and it was hard to resist the temptation to leap for the double-digit annual returns that hedge funds and other professional money managers were attaining. ”


November 5, 2017 

“Before long, the OPPRS—exactly the type of dumb-money clients that Hayes and his ilk battled for the right to do business with—was the proud owner of Japanese interest-rate derivatives. Sure enough, the bets soured—a result, the fund would later claim, of manipulation by Hayes and his pals. A similar scenario played out in California. ”


November 5, 2017 

“To survive, RP Martin had to be aggressive, going the extra mile for clients. Until 2010, Mustard resisted even having a compliance department; the basic guiding principle governing employee conduct should be common sense, he thought, not a rigid set of rules. When he finally bowed to reality and created a compliance group, he did what he could to marginalise its employees. Warning the new department’s chief not to inadvertently “destabilise” things, Mustard told him not to introduce any initiatives that would affect the brokers. The last thing Mustard needed was an intrusive internal affairs bureau causing his stars to jump to competitors.”


November 5, 2017 

“Stenfors grew up in a small town in Finland near the Baltic Sea. Athletic, with high cheekbones, brown sideburns, and deep-set brown eyes, he was the unusual combination of a runner and smoker.”


November 5, 2017 

“Stenfors cycled through some of the world’s biggest banks. In September 2001, he was working in London in the investment-banking division of Crédit Agricole when terrorists hijacked planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in Manhattan. The French bank’s New York offices were on the ninety-second floor of the World Trade Center’s North Tower—just below where the first plane crashed. (Sixty-nine Crédit Agricole employees perished that day.) Early that afternoon in London, footage of the disaster was broadcast on the wall-mounted TVs around Crédit Agricole’s trading floor. Stenfors and his colleagues kept doing business as if nothing had happened.”


November 5, 2017 

“Stenfors and Farr were tight. Stenfors thought the broker was friendly and honest, and it felt nice to do business with an underdog firm and an up-from-his-bootstraps broker who was making a fraction of what someone at a rival firm would earn.”


November 5, 2017 

“After clicking at the ICAP party, Hayes and Stenfors started trading together more and more. Hayes soon became one of Stenfors’s biggest trading partners, and they tended to automatically route their transactions through Farr, who pocketed fat commission payments for almost no work.”


November 5, 2017 

“To the frustration of some of his brokers, Hayes remained uninterested in being lavishly entertained. He preferred to sit at home with a bucket of fried chicken from KFC and a tall glass of orange juice, followed by a hot bath. One evening, a desperate broker showed up outside UBS’s Tokyo office and pleaded to let him take Hayes out to dinner; the broker needed to show his bosses he was entertaining the star client. Hayes finally relented—and then led him to a nearby Burger King, where the broker spotted a rat scuttling across the floor”


November 5, 2017 

“The irony was that, just as the Reads started to settle down, Hayes was thinking about returning to England. Ainsworth, after getting off to a fast start in Japan, now was entertaining a fantasy of opening a clothing shop back home. (“Independent woman,” Read remarked sarcastically. “Fantastic.”) Hayes, meanwhile, missed the food, his family, the ability to communicate relatively easily, the weather (he hated Tokyo’s hot summer days and longed for soggy England), and especially Queens Park Rangers. Maybe he could move back to London, enrol in business school, and pursue a profession less intense than trading. He gave himself at most another couple of years in Tokyo. “I will definitely need a rest,” he told Read.”


Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” iBooks. 


Sunday, December 3, 2017

Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” (5/19)

November 5, 2017 

“Excess was everywhere in the heady days before the financial crisis. Similar to UBS, BNP had started out back in 1848 as a run-of-the-mill French lender, but by now it had become a continent-leaping colossus”


November 5, 2017 

“Hayes had been in Tokyo a rough couple of months. There was, of course, the lingering ugliness surrounding his trading in his final weeks at the Royal Bank of Canada, but it seemed like nearly everything else had been a mess, too. After he had spent a few days working in UBS’s office, the human resources department got around to collecting his documentation and realised he didn’t have a work visa, only a tourist one. It therefore was illegal for him to be working in Japan. Hayes was ordered by a distressed HR officer to immediately leave for Seoul, South Korea, and to stay there until his Japanese visa came through. The mix-up didn’t inspire much confidence in UBS.”


November 5, 2017 

“The Team America puppets depicting Middle Eastern terrorists used the phrase “Derka derka Muhammad jihad” instead of speaking actual Arabic. Alykulov wasn’t an Arab, and Kazakhstan isn’t in the Middle East. No matter. “Haha, that’s great,” Pieri said when he learned of his subordinate’s nickname.”


November 5, 2017 

“ Hayes organised his bets around derivatives that would deliver profits if, at a specific date, the difference between two interest rates—say, those in the United States and those in Japan—narrowed or widened by very precise margins”


November 5, 2017 

“Hayes’s team was on a floor that also included specialists in trading currencies, commodities, and bonds. The entire group would go out for beer-and-bowling nights three or four times a year at the Tokyo Dome Bowling Center, next door to the indoor stadium where the Yomiuri Giants baseball team played. These were among the few work events that Hayes genuinely enjoyed.”


November 5, 2017 

“ Long before Hayes arrived in Tokyo, the submitters and the traders had realised they could help each other out. It had been common practice at UBS for traders to ask their deskmates to nudge Tibor in helpful directions, and to ring colleagues in other parts of the UBS empire for help moving Libor. Those colleagues didn’t have to comply—they could have reported something resembling the bank’s actual borrowing costs—but who wanted to be the martyr, the goody two-shoes, who interfered with traders raking in profits for the bank?”


November 5, 2017 

“One afternoon that September, Hayes was chatting electronically with a Tokyo broker named David Perfect.”


November 5, 2017 

“It’s “very, very hard to price stuff with the fixes”—trader shorthand for benchmarks like Libor—“being so manipulated and inconsistent,” he complained.
“The fixes are manipulated?” Perfect deadpanned.
“Yes, of course they are,” Hayes said, not picking up the sarcasm.
“Kidding,” Perfect clarified.”


November 5, 2017 

“And so on his first day of trading, as Hayes chatted with Terry Farr, he threw in a casual aside: “Do me a favour today and get Libors right up.”fn2
“I’ll do what I can,” Farr responded”


November 5, 2017 

“Around 7 A.M., he sent out an e-mail called a “run-through” to a slew of bank traders. The dispatch contained a simple spreadsheet—basically just a box of numbers—pasted into the body of the message. It listed where every tenor—the technical term for time periodfn3—of yen Libor had stood the past day or two and where Goodman expected it to end up that day. He called that last figure “Suggested Libors.” Each morning, he prefaced the data with the same simple note: “GOOD MORNING YEN RUN THRU.”


November 5, 2017 

“Relying on the run-throughs represented an enticing shortcut. And because of the inherent subjectivity of the Libor estimates, nobody was likely to notice.”


November 5, 2017 

“Once, when Goodman’s run-through contained a typo, suggesting six-month Libor at 1.10 instead of 1.01, Read noticed that Citigroup and WestLB copied it, even though it represented a huge leap from the previous day’s level. When Goodman corrected it the next day, the banks again followed suit. In other words, the laziness of a few bank employees—“sheep,” as Read sometimes called them—meant that ICAP’s run-throughs had a startling amount of real power. ”


November 5, 2017 

“Indian food being the preferred takeout option among London’s traders and brokers”


November 5, 2017 

“Over the next two years, Hayes—or Alykulov, who had eagerly accepted a job as Hayes’s deputy, hoping some of his brilliance would rub off on him—would ping Darin on hundreds of occasions asking him to move UBS’s Libor data in helpful ways. Darin often complied. Neither he nor Alykulov thought much of the requests, partly because it was so clearly common practice on the bank’s trading floors.”


November 5, 2017 

“The exchange reflected an important dynamic: There were limits to the extent that traders would tinker with Libor. You could move Libor within a certain plausible band to help yourself, but straying outside that range was at best unwise. Did that principle stem from a sense of propriety, a notion that while the definition of Libor was a bit amorphous, the submissions needed to have at least some integrity? Or was it simply that traders wanted to avoid detection as they rigged a vital interest rate? Years later, that question would be hotly contested.”


November 5, 2017 

“Hayes’s life revolved around his job. He typically arrived at work around 8 A.M. and stayed till at least 7 P.M. He came in when he was sick. He rarely ate lunch. An assistant fetched him afternoon tea.”


November 5, 2017 

“hough Hayes was obsessed, he was hardly miserable. For the first time in his life, he was popular with women. The fact that he was a well-paid rising star probably didn’t hurt. But he also felt more relaxed talking to Japanese women (those who spoke English, that is) than he did Western ones because he didn’t find the former to be physically attractive. Japanese women took an immediate liking to him, apparently because he seemed nonpredatory and sweet compared to some of his peers.fn6 One woman at UBS found his quirky personality adorable and bought him a pair of panda dolls. Propped up on his desk, they became his lucky pandas.”


Notes From: David Enrich. “The Spider Network.” iBooks.