Sunday, February 17, 2019

Some things I read recently

Atual Gawande on why doctors hate computers:
Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans.

Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fields—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.


Silicon Valley, China: 
Work habits weren’t the only sharp difference between the Valley and China. By the end of the week, a group of American executives and investors found an alternate tech universe. It resembles Silicon Valley superficially. Look closer, and it becomes a futuristic yet closed-off world that can be equally impressive, alienating and dystopian.

Although some Chinese tech companies can look very Silicon Valley-esque — with sprawling campuses that include dining halls, gyms and nap rooms — their preferred management style is still top down and results driven. Unlike Silicon Valley, smart underlings have less freedom to start something new.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/china-silicon-valley-technology.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

Tesla and dodgy HSE records:
Watson recalled one worker who had passed out on the job and went to the hospital because of her exposure to fumes in the factory. Even though a work-related loss of consciousness is required to be counted, no such injury was recorded on Tesla’s injury logs.

Temp workers hurt on the production line also were often rebuffed by the clinic, said former clinic employees. At one point, there was a blanket policy to turn away temps, they said.


Silicon Valley's doomsday historian/forecaster:
“I’m interested in how Silicon Valley can be so infatuated with Yuval, which they are — it’s insane he’s so popular, they’re all inviting him to campus — yet what Yuval is saying undermines the premise of the advertising- and engagement-based model of their products,” said Tristan Harris, Google’s former in-house design ethicist and the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology.

Part of the reason might be that Silicon Valley, at a certain level, is not optimistic on the future of democracy. The more of a mess Washington becomes, the more interested the tech world is in creating something else, and it might not look like elected representation. Rank-and-file coders have long been wary of regulation and curious about alternative forms of government.

Fascinating interview with Eric Schmidt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEH3j7AINwU

Investors need to change or die:
Autos A cyclical, capital-intensive business that makes commoditized products is a troubled industry to begin with. If driverless cars become a reality, then car sharing is not far behind. Once that occurs, it’s virtually certain we’ll need fewer automobiles. Falling production on a fixed-cost base—look out below.

Insurance Another cyclical, commoditized business with no barriers to entry except capital—which is to say, no barriers at all. Returns on equity in insurance have been in structural decline for 30 years, with personal lines most at risk. Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate is invested in insurance, has acknowledged that self-driving cars could significantly decrease auto-insurance premiums. Such coverage may join the buggy whip in terms of utility within the next generation.
http://fortune.com/longform/value-investing-warren-buffett-tech-stocks/

Some BoJack:
It’s not about being happy, that is the thing. I’m just trying to get through each day. I can’t keep asking myself ‘Am I happy? ‘ It just makes me more miserable. I don’t know If I believe in it, real lasting happiness, All those perky, well-adjusted people you see in movies and TV shows ? I don’t think they exist.

Diane Nguyen, BoJack Horseman, Season 3: BoJack Kills

On touching and China: 
Perhaps touch between friends was partly set free, and came to the fore, because sexual touch was prohibited by the Communist Party under Mao. Sex was confined to marriage, and even then wasn’t supposed to distract from the love for the revolution.
Among the older generation, who grew up under these ideas, couples are fairly formal with each other physically in public. When I spoke to older people sitting by Beijing’s Back Lake about the kinds of touch they shared with their spouses in their homes they were matter-of-fact. Sex was sex, one lady told me, it never involved kissing. An elderly man told me of his relationship with his wife: ‘I rub her back, she rubs mine.’