Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Jeff Bezos interview



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Monday, December 15, 2014

The best networking strategy

"The best networking strategy you can possibly have is to actively look for opportunities to help others. If you’re always putting yourself and your needs first, you’ll find you don’t get very far."

 via: linkedin
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Saturday, December 13, 2014

Weekend Longform Linkfest


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Sunday, December 7, 2014

This American Life: Dealing with kids


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Saturday, December 6, 2014

Linkfest

Julian Robertson On What Stocks He Likes Now: Interview ~ market folly http://www.marketfolly.com/2014/12/julian-robertson-on-what-stocks-he.html …
The best advice in business: 40 execs reveal their secrets to success http://fortune.com/2014/10/29/ceo-best-advice/ …
Starboard Value's Jeff Smith: The investor CEO's fear most http://fortune.com/2014/12/03/starboard-capitals-jeff-smith-activist-investor-darden-restaurants/ …
Air conditioning without electricity? New materials may change the way temperatures are regulated http://econ.st/1zi2Q3p
 Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View https://soundcloud.com/bloombergview/masters-in-business-yale …
Maria Popova on Writing, Workflow, and Workarounds | The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/10/21/brain-pickings/ …
Digital Journalism and Investing: Charlie Rose (11/18) - Businessweek http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2014-11-18/digital-journalism-and-investing-charlie-rose-11-18 …
#2 The Secret, Gruesome Internet For Doctors http://gimletmedia.com/episode/2-instagram-for-doctors/ …
Specials: Here's The Thing: Jerry Seinfeld - WNYC http://www.wnyc.org/story/heres-thing-jerry-seinfeld/ …
Here's The Thing: Ira Glass - WNYC http://www.wnyc.org/story/ira-glass-interview/ …
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Sunday, November 30, 2014

Weekend Linkfest

Catching up on some podcasts: Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View https://soundcloud.com/bloombergview/masters-in-business-yale …
Maria Popova on Writing, Workflow, and Workarounds | The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/10/21/brain-pickings/ …
Digital Journalism and Investing: Charlie Rose (11/18) - Businessweek http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2014-11-18/digital-journalism-and-investing-charlie-rose-11-18 …
#2 The Secret, Gruesome Internet For Doctors http://gimletmedia.com/episode/2-instagram-for-doctors/ …
Specials: Here's The Thing: Jerry Seinfeld - WNYC http://www.wnyc.org/story/heres-thing-jerry-seinfeld/ …
Here's The Thing: Ira Glass - WNYC http://www.wnyc.org/story/ira-glass-interview/ …

And some other stuff: The man who taught Warren Buffett how to manage a company - Quartz http://qz.com/273797/tom-murphy-taught-warren-buffett-how-to-manage-a-company/ …
Howard S. Marks, CFA: Dare to Be Great (II) on Livestream http://new.livestream.com/livecfa/marks2014 …
Easy Ways to Think About Hard Finance Stuff http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/26/easy-ways-to-think-about-hard-finance-stuff.aspx …
The Cost of a Thanksgiving Food Coma http://briefs.blpprofessional.com/viz/The-Cost-of-a-Thanksgiving-Food-Coma/index.html …
Pershing square..Q3 Letter http://cdn1.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd.-Q3-Investor-Letter-Nov-25-.pdf …
The Excrement Experiment http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/12/01/excrement-experiment?intcid=mod-most-popular …
Whole Foods Detroit: Can a grocery store really fight elitism, racism, and obesity? http://www.slate.com/articles/life/food/2014/11/whole_foods_detroit_can_a_grocery_store_really_fight_elitism_racism_and.html …
If you read one thing today, make it Anne Lamott on gratitude and grace during life’s darkest moments http://buff.ly/1row8sH
Through a micro-agriculture program, there's hope for girls living in an unbendingly patriarchal society: http://ow.ly/EqFMw
Data and development: Off the map http://econ.st/14iy294
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Thursday, November 27, 2014

Roast of Bill Ackman



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Monday, November 17, 2014

Global Borrowing costs vs. GDP

via: JPM
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Value links

As Sears Gasps, Lampert Turns to Financial Engineering to Revive It - http://NYTimes.com http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/as-sears-gasps-lampert-turns-to-financial-engineering-to-revive-it/?ref=business&_r=2 …
Applying Decision Analysis to Venture Investing | Kauffman Fellows http://www.kauffmanfellows.org/journal_posts/applying-decision-analysis-to-venture-investing/ …
Value Investing World: Walter Isaacson in converstaion with two pioneers of the Internet, Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2014/11/walter-isaacson-in-converstaion-with.html …
BeyondProxy | Value Investing Ideas and Wisdom http://www.beyondproxy.com/skill-luck-gaining-investment-edge/ …
Others:
Romance: A BCG Analysis http://www.seth-smith.org.uk/images/laughter/LoveLife.pdf …
Dr. Atul Gawande on "Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End" | The Aspen Institute http://www.aspeninstitute.org/about/blog/atul-gawande-being-mortal-medicine-and-what-matters-in-the-end …
Interview: Christer Tryggestad, Director, McKinsey & Company Norway | EnergyBoardroom http://www.energyboardroom.com/interviews/interview-christer-tryggestad-director-mckinsey-company-norway …
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Thursday, November 13, 2014

Guy Spier Q&A



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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Some thoughts on Harvard Management Company


1. What are some advantages that HMC has over its competitors? 

Some of the biggest advantages of the HMC over it’s competitors i.e. other endowment funds can be stated as following:
·      Because of Harvard Management Company’s association with Harvard University (a globally recognized Ivy league institution), the portfolio managers and research analysts enjoyed access to some of the best research from around the world
·      HMC also had a AAA credit rating – which implies that it had extremely low borrowing costs to leverage up its bets, regardless of size
·      AAA rating also helped HMC to be recognized as a favorable swap counterparty

2. In class you saw a number for the target real expected return for HMC: around 6.25%. How is this figure derived in the case? 

Basically:
6.5% = 4.5- 5% + 1.5 %

If in the long run – the endowment fund was able to generate returns of 6.5 % over the CPI (benchmark), then that would meet the needs of the policy stated by the board.

Where the 4.5% is what is needed to cover the expense of the university, and the 1.5% gap would need to be filled by gifts and donations.

“In the last several decades, spending as a percent of endowment value had been as high as 5.9% and as low as 3.3% but had averaged 4.6%.”

3. What is the Policy Portfolio? Can HMC deviate from its weights? Do you think the Policy Portfolio is a useful concept? (Is it really necessary, or did HMC set it up just to satisfy the Board?) 

Meyer essentially established the ‘policy portfolio’ in 1990 after an extended set of analysis and discussions about return expectations and risk Tolerances. One of the key pillars of the policy portfolio was to focus on long-term opportunities for the endowment and not to focus on short-term market fluctuations.
Exhibit 3 shows what the policy portfolio is under ‘neutral conditions’ and what the expectations are under normal conditions.

While the Policy portfolio is the guideline for performance – the HMC fund is allowed to deviate from its weight as stated in exhibit 3, provided it stays within tolerance. This system of allocation and rotating asset classes and capitalizing on opportunities is what is termed as ‘tactical asset allocation’.

The policy portfolio is a good guideline/mechanism because it let’s users observe performance of asset managers from an objective standpoint and prevents them from succumbing from their biases i.e. moving too far away from their area of expertise and deviating from the portfolio goals. 
By keeping a policy, HMC can control and measure the performance in one core way – over performance over the policy requirement.

via: HMC

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Linkfest

BeyondProxy | Value Investing Ideas and Wisdom http://www.beyondproxy.com/skill-luck-gaining-investment-edge/ …
The ultimate guide to everything that will matter in 2015: http://buswk.co/1ux9eGa #yearahead via @BW
Value Investing World: Walter Isaacson interview with Elon Musk http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2014/10/walter-isaacson-interview-with-elon-musk.html …
Greenlight Q3 Letter: Short http://Amazon.com (AMZN)? http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/11/greenlight-q3-letter-amzn/ …
The Gulf, explained in 40 maps http://www.bqdoha.com/2013/08/the-gulf-explained-in-20-maps …
Tim Cook Interview: The iPhone 6, the Apple Watch, and Remaking a Company's Culture http://rdd.me/he9cfjk2 via @readability
Anthony Scaramucci On The Activist Investing Boom And Other Recent Hedge...: http://youtu.be/KG-RHVMf_6o via @YouTube
Tom Wagner’s Big Idea: American Airlines http://bloom.bg/1CQv5qx via @BloombergTV
Russ Roberts: Adam Smith’s Surprising Guide to Happiness (But Not Wealth) http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/russ-roberts-adam-smiths-surprising-guide-happiness-wealth/ …
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Thursday, October 23, 2014

Crown Castle International Corp.[Value investing]

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Saturday, October 18, 2014

The Inside Job[video]

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Patents and history in one chart

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Friday, October 17, 2014

Weekend Longform Linkfest

15 TRUTHS THAT FEW BELIEVE http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/10/2/15-truths-that-few-believe …
Sale: Apple Shares at Half Price http://carlicahn.tumblr.com/post/99561448231/sale-apple-shares-at-half-price …
A memoir of gratification: How the marshmallow test became Walter Mischel's life work http://econ.st/1w1LW7v 
Inside An $8 Billion Family Feud: Who Poisoned The Orkin Fortune? http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2014/09/29/inside-the-3-billion-feud-tearing-georgias-rollins-family-apart/ …
Charlie Munger And The 2014 Daily Journal Annual Meeting: A Fan's Notes http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2014/09/19/charlie-munger-and-the-2014-daily-journal-annual-meeting-a-fans-notes/ …
McKinsey’s manicures are a tacky way to nail recruits http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd7e4fb4-4a63-11e4-bc07-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3FlvvH4Lp …
CNBC Transcript: Legendary Investor Warren Buffett Speaks with CNBC's Becky Quick on the Nationally Syndicated http://www.cnbc.com/id/102057905
Richard Branson: Virgin’s stunt man http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-leadership/wp/2014/09/26/richard-branson-virgins-stunt-man/ …
“Collaborators don’t make discoveries. Leaders make discoveries,” investor tells students http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/2014-sam-zell.php …
Grossing Up for Success http://www.cornercap.com/blog/grossing-success …
Boyle Asset Management Letter link
Want to start a startup? http://www.paulgraham.com/before.html
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Quote on Volatility


As we said in our Annual Letter, “The greatest buying opportunities arise when liquidity is in short supply and anxious investors, consumed by fear, are forced to sell securities as prices fall. Leaving the party early will almost always result in short term underperformance during the later stages of bull markets, but it is the only way to ensure that you have the resolve, the discipline, and the dry powder to buy when risk is lowest and expected returns highest.”

 via: Boyle 
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Thursday, October 16, 2014

Peter Thiel on his new book[video]


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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

To profit as a value investor you must

To profit as a value investor you must:
  1. find an instance where the crowd is wrong,
  2. that gap must be within your circle of competence, and
  3. the value of the asset purchased must substantially exceed the price paid (e.g., 25%), so you have a margin of safety which can allow you to profit even if you make a mistake or suffer from bad luck.
Since these three things happen at the same time only occasionally, most of the time you should do nothing. Since inactivity tends to be contrary to human nature, learning to be patient and yet aggressive when the time is right is a trained response.  This is part of the reason why value investing is simple, but not easy.
via: 25iq
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Thursday, October 9, 2014

LInkfest

SCOTT ADAMS, CREATOR OF DILBERT: HOW FAILING IS THE SECRET TO SUCCESS [podcast] http://askaltucher.com/dilbert/ 
Bill Gates Talks Ebola, MSFT, Bitcoin and More [VIDEO] http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/bill-gates-talks-ebola-msft-bitcoin-video/ …
One simple invention to help stop Ebola: The incredible rubber glove http://theatln.tc/1nQEzRk 
Watching Charlie Rose: David Feherty; Peter Thiel; HDS Greenway on @CharlieRose: http://hulu.com/w/l1oo 
Watching Charlie Rose: Former President Bill Clinton on @CharlieRose: http://hulu.com/w/l4dc 
Charlie Munger And The 2014 Daily Journal Annual Meeting: A Fan's Notes http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2014/09/19/charlie-munger-and-the-2014-daily-journal-annual-meeting-a-fans-notes/ …
The marriage market http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/09/marriage-market …
Creating shared value: http://hbr.org/2011/01/the-big-idea-creating-shared-value
Horrifying Photos of China's Dog-Eating Festival—and the Activists Who Are Trying to Stop It http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119223/photos-yulin-chinas-dog-meat-eating-festival-2014 …
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Buffet on Investment Strategy[recent interview]



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Thursday, October 2, 2014

A few words from Charlie Munger

"We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side." — Charlie Munger

"The ability to destroy your ideas rapidly instead of slowly when the occasion is right is one of the most valuable things. You have to work hard on it. Ask yourself what are the arguments on the other side. It's bad to have an opinion you're proud of if you can't state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline." — Charlie Munger

via: FarnamStreet

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Paul Graham video[How to Start a Startup]



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Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Chart of the day

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Sunday, September 21, 2014

Jim Chanos podcast on M&A

Chanos eventually wound up at Deutsche Bank. Despite his successful track record, some of the firm's clients complained about the young analyst's criticism. After a negative Wall Street Journal article, his contract was not renewed. In 1985, he created Kynikos Associates, a hedge fund that now manages billions of dollars for institutional investors. Kynikos is the Greek word for "cynic."

"A key point that stuck in my head was on M&A - instead of expensing their R&D efforts, companies are acquiring other companies, in effect capitalizing their R&D efforts. 
This is scary."

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Charlie Rose: Tim Cook[video]



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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

A fireside chat with Munger

On what he and Mr. Buffett call "the circle of your competence":

Confucius said that real knowledge is knowing the extent of one's ignorance. Aristotle and Socrates said the same thing. Is it a skill that can be taught or learned? It probably can, if you have enough of a stake riding on the outcome. Some people are extraordinarily good at knowing the limits of their knowledge, because they have to be. Think of somebody who's been a professional tightrope walker for 20 years – and has survived. He couldn't survive as a tightrope walker for 20 years unless he knows exactly what he knows and what he doesn't know.  He's worked so hard at it, because he knows if he gets it wrong he won't survive. The survivors know.

Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant.

via: WSJ

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How to make it worse[infographic]


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Saturday, September 13, 2014

Weekend Longform Linkfest

The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest [graphics] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html?rref=upshot&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1 …
Blackstone's $26 Billion Hilton Deal: The Best Leveraged Buyout Ever http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-11/blackstones-hilton-deal-best-leveraged-buyout-ever …
MiB: David Rosenberg http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/mib-david-rosenberg/ …
The Tim Ferriss Show: Interview with Peter Thiel, Billionaire Investor and Company Creator http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/09/09/peter-thiel/ …
Forum family office : Hiring criteria for a family office fund http://jobs.forumgruppe.com/pdfs/14-06-23%20Broschuere%20Jobs%20eng.pdf …
Guy Spier: Buffett Taught Me Not To Compromise http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/guy-spier-buffett-bloomberg/ …
Teach for America has faced criticism for years. http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6079493/teach-for-america-criticism-changing?src=longreads …
Advice columns from decades past provide a chilling glimpse into the horrors of marriage counselling before feminism http://aeon.co/magazine/psychology/the-warped-world-of-1950s-marriage-counselling/ …
#DATACLYSM is out today! A September Best Book on Amazon http://amzn.to/1rwwuhn and iTunes http://bit.ly/1qJ40BV .
I’m a writer, and my experience with this supposedly evil corporate behemoth has been fantastic. http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/09/in_defense_of_amazon_an_author_s_dissent.single.html …
33 Things to Eat, Drink, See, and Do Before Climate Change Ruins Everything https://medium.com/matter/the-33-things-to-do-before-climate-change-ruins-everything-3428851c909c …
Peter Thiel disagrees with you http://fortune.com/2014/09/04/peter-thiels-contrarian-strategy/ …
Q&A with Guy Spier of Aquamarine Capital http://thealephblog.tumblr.com/post/96437440523/qa-with-guy-spier-of-aquamarine-capital …
Why Doctors Are Sick of Their Profession http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-s-ailing-medical-system-a-doctors-perspective-1409325361 …
IAmArnold... Ask me anything. http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/16mq0g/iamarnold_ask_me_anything/ …
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Rules for presentations[infographics]

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Friday, September 12, 2014

Supposed places of filmed locations[infographic]


via: ritholtz
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Monday, September 1, 2014

Conduct Unbecoming an Officer [mungerism]

"This should change. When I was an officer in the military, we had a rule called Conduct Unbecoming an Officer. It was not specific, but it said there were certain ways to behave as an example for others. I don't see why we shouldn't have this for our corporate executives. I would argue the CEO of Boeing was removed for Conduct Unbecoming an Officer. Messing up the email system of a corporation with hot and dirty email is Conduct Unbecoming an Officer. I would love to see the SEC make it explicit: "We hereby exercise our authority and say that there will be a new standard for officers of public companies called Conduct Unbecoming an Officer." The lawyers would scream though – it's not specific enough.

But if we ask our military officers, who risk their lives and risk being maimed [to adhere to this standard], then why can't we ask this of some guy making $2 million per year? (Applause)

Well that's corporate governance. It's certainly been interesting to watch as these messy stories unfurl. "

via: Charlie Munger : From Wesco Notes
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Peter Lynch 1984 Speech: Knowing What You Own



via: VW
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Sunday, August 31, 2014

Charlie Munger: What a man wishes, he believes

[Everything extracted from Speech]

But even with this amazingly active, would-be-polymathic new layer of consultant- choosing consultants, the individual investment counselors, in picking common stocks, still rely to a considerable extent on a third layer of consultants. The third layer consists of the security analysts employed by investment banks. These security analysts receive enormous salaries, sometimes set in seven figures after bidding wars. The hiring investment banks recoup these salaries from two sources: (1) commissions and trading spreads born by security buyers (some of which are rebated as "soft dollars" to money managers), plus (2) investment banking charges paid by corporations which appreciate the enthusiastic way their securities are being recommended by the security analysts.

Human nature being what it is, most people assume away worries like those I raise. After all, five centuries before Christ Demosthenes noted that: "What a man wishes, he will believe." And in self appraisals of prospects and talents it is the norm, as Demosthenes predicted, for people to be ridiculously over-optimistic. For instance, a careful survey in Sweden showed that 90% of automobile drivers considered themselves above average. And people who are successfully selling something, as investment counselors do, make Swedish drivers sound like depressives. Virtually every investment expert's public assessment is that he is above average, no matter what is the evidence to the contrary.

But, you may think, my foundation, at least, will be above average. It is well endowed, hires the best, and considers all investment issues at length and with objective professionalism. And to this I respond that an excess of what seems like professionalism will often hurt you horribly — precisely because the careful procedures themselves often lead to overconfidence in their outcome.

The hedge fund known as "Long Term Capital Management" recently collapsed, through overconfidence in its highly leveraged methods, despite I.Qs. of its principals that must have averaged 160. Smart, hard-working people aren't exempted from professional disasters from overconfidence. Often, they just go around in the more difficult voyages they choose, relying on their self-appraisals that they have superior talents and methods. 

But most good things have undesired "side effects," and thinking is no exception. The best defense is that of the best physicists, who systematically criticize themselves to an extreme degree, using a mindset described by Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman as follows: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you're the easiest person to fool." 

I wish to say that I agree with Peter Drucker that the culture and legal systems of the United States are especially favorable to shareholder interests, compared to other interests and compared to most other countries. Indeed, there are many other countries where any good going to public shareholders has a very low priority and almost every other constituency stands higher in line. This factor, I think is underweighed at many investment institutions, probably because it does not easily lead to quantitative thinking using modern financial technique. But some important factor doesn't lose share of force just because some "expert" can better measure other types of force. Generally, I tend to prefer over direct foreign investment Berkshire's practice of participating in foreign economies through the likes of Coca-Cola and Gillette.

 via: Charlie Munger Speech

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Saturday, August 30, 2014

Weekend Links

Confessions of a Fat Bastard http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/confessions-fat-bastard-daniel-vaughn-barbecue-editor/page/0/1 …
Morningstar: A force to be reckoned with http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e02d2768-22d2-11e4-8dae-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3Bi8H1DlF …
Taming the Mammoth: Why You Should Stop Caring What Other People Think http://lifehacker.com/taming-the-mammoth-why-you-should-stop-caring-what-oth-1628033209?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+lifehacker/full+(Lifehacker …)
The World Is Squared: Episode 1 – “Switzerland, Country of Joyce” http://crookedtimber.org/2014/08/26/the-world-is-squared-episode-1-switzerland-country-of-joyce/ …
Scientists agree: Coffee naps are better than coffee or naps alone http://www.vox.com/2014/8/28/6074177/coffee-naps-caffeine-science …
Internship Programs Analysis: Industries Where Internships Bring the Most New Hires [INTERACTIVE] http://talent.linkedin.com/blog/index.php/2014/08/internship-program-analysis?utm_source=ltsshowcasepage&utm_medium=sponsoredupdate&utm_campaign=internshipprogram_082114&sf4296794=1 …
Interview With Bill Gurley: The Guy Who Backed OpenTable, Yelp, GrubHub, Twitter, Zillow And Uber http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2014/08/26/interview-with-bill-gurley-the-guy-who-backed-opentable-yelp-grubhub-twitter-zillow-and-uber/ …
The Learning Myth: Why I'll Never Tell My Son He's Smart https://www.khanacademy.org/about/blog/post/95208400815/the-learning-myth-why-ill-never-tell-my-son-hes …
The decline and fall of the American university is written in 25-page course syllabi. http://www.slate.com/articles/life/education/2014/08/college_course_syllabi_they_re_too_long_and_they_re_a_symbol_of_the_decline.html …
6 THINGS TO DO IN YOUR EARLY 20'S http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/8/27/6-things-to-do-in-your-early-20s …
46 Incredible Photos You May Not Have Seen Before. #22 Is Unbelievable. http://www.tickld.com/x/46-incredible-photos-you-may-not-have-seen-before …
Burger King-Tim Hortons combo brings 33-year-old CEO Daniel Schwartz to the top http://business.financialpost.com/2014/08/26/daniel-schwartz-burger-king-tim-hortons/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__federated=1&__lsa=7502-672f …
Inside Hermès: Luxury's Secret Empire http://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2014/08/20/inside-hermes-luxury-secret-empire/ …
Writing a Bigger Book http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424127887324616904580108330021565828 …
This is Uber's playbook for sabotaging Lyft http://www.theverge.com/2014/8/26/6067663/this-is-ubers-playbook-for-sabotaging-lyft …
The Matter of Time http://nymag.com/news/features/time-inc-magazines-2014-8/ …
How Norway has avoided the 'curse of oil' http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28882312 …
The story of Elon Musk and GM’s race to build the first mass-market electric car http://qz.com/252990/the-story-of-elon-musk-and-gms-race-to-build-the-first-mass-market-electric-car/ …
What The Original Mad Man David Ogilvy Can Teach Investors http://greenbackd.com/2014/08/25/what-mad-man-david-ogilvy-can-teach-investors/ …
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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Weekend Links

A History of This^, #This, and This https://medium.com/matter/how-a-single-pronoun-became-the-internets-most-expressive-meme-f6f89a365064 …
Review: A Reader's Guide to Strategy http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141855/paul-kennedy/success-stories …
Profile : Einstein Scientist and Mob Idol—I http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1933/12/02/scientist-mob-idol-1 …
Bugs and Beasts Before the Law http://publicdomainreview.org/2011/03/27/bugs-and-beasts-before-the-law/ …
Kim Dotcom: from playboy entrepreneur to political firebrand http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/17/kim-dotcom-megaupload-new-zealand-interview/print …
In Praise of Efficient Price Gouging http://www.technologyreview.com/review/529961/in-praise-of-efficient-price-gouging/ …
What It Takes to Be an Astronaut http://priceonomics.com/what-it-takes-to-be-an-astronaut/ …
The Trade of the Century: When George Soros Broke the British Pound http://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-george-soros-broke/ …
The Great Toilet Paper Scare of 1973 http://priceonomics.com/the-great-toilet-paper-scare-of-1973/ …
A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Strategy, Business and Investing From Michael Porter http://25iq.com/2013/08/26/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-about-strategy-business-and-investing-from-michael-porter-2/ …
Why is astrology bullshit? (self.atheism) http://www.reddit.com/r/atheism/comments/15xreg/why_is_astrology_bullshit/ …
Why eBay Is an Art Forger’s Paradise http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/19/why-ebay-is-an-art-forgers-paradise.html …
Tim ferris on Homeopathy : PODCAST http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/08/19/homeopathic-medicine/
Peculiar Habits of Incredibly Successful People http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/22/peculiar-habits-of-incredibly-successful-people.aspx
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How to disappear online [infographic]


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Saturday, August 16, 2014

Weekend Links

An Insider’s Account of the Yahoo-Alibaba Deal https://www.readability.com/articles/3f1po4ew …
A Dozen Things I’ve Learned From Heidi Roizen http://25iq.com/2014/08/10/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-heidi-roizen-2/ …
Honda’s global strategy? Go local. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-honda-makes-globalization-work/2014/08/07/b84f16be-1cd0-11e4-ab7b-696c295ddfd1_print.html …
Justice for jocks http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21612156-americas-exploitative-college-sports-system-can-be-mended-not-ended-justice-jocks …
Kill the Company to Save the Company, with Lisa Bodell http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/kill-the-company-to-save-the-company-with-lisa-bodell/ …
Falling: Love and Marriage in a Conservative Indian Family | Longreads Blog http://blog.longreads.com/2014/08/14/falling-love-and-marriage-in-a-conservative-indian-family/ …
"Here’s How Maria Popova of Brain Pickings Writes" http://rdd.me/awqfbrht via @readability
A TED playlist to watch: The most popular talks of all time http://www.ted.com/playlists/171/the_most_popular_talks_of_all …
The Sotheby’s Indicator Points to Caution | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM http://pragcap.com/the-sothebys-indicator …
How to Look Smart - Julie Beck - The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/09/how-to-look-smart/375062/ …
19 Things I Learned in Nigeria http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/08/19-things-learned-nigeria.html …
How to Be Polite https://medium.com/message/how-to-be-polite-9bf1e69e888c …
"Lunch with the FT: Niall FitzGerald - http://FT.com " http://rdd.me/flxvqnts via @readability
Watching Charlie Rose: Robin Williams Appreciation on @CharlieRose: http://hulu.com/w/kiai 
The truth behind Square : "Back To Square One" http://rdd.me/eydbgrug via @readability
Want It, and I Want It Now — It’s Time for Instant Gratification http://recode.net/2014/08/04/i-want-it-and-i-want-it-now-its-time-for-instant-gratification/ …
From Jamaica With Love: how the Caribbean made Bond » The Spectator http://www.spectator.co.uk/books/books-feature/9280331/goldeneye-by-matthew-parker-review/ …
Normally, when some big deal is announced in the business world, a rah-rah press release goes out… — Medium https://medium.com/@felixsalmon/normally-when-some-big-deal-is-announced-in-the-business-world-a-rah-rah-press-release-goes-out-236f5ae86ee4 …
50 Million New Reasons BuzzFeed Wants to Take Its Content Far Beyond Lists http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/11/technology/a-move-to-go-beyond-lists-for-content-at-buzzfeed.html?_r=0 …
Writing, Briefly http://www.paulgraham.com/writing44.html 
GE Taps Lean Startup Ideas for Faster, Cheaper Product Rollout - Businessweek http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/218259-general-electric-wants-to-act-like-a-startup …
This Is the Unauthorized Letter Passed to Elite MBAs For Decades http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-05/mbas-at-top-business-schools-have-gotten-a-secret-note-for-decades …
Barry Ritholtz Interview Brennan, Ex CEO Of Vanguard [AUDIO] http://stks.co/s0eK8 $
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Thursday, August 14, 2014

Charlie Munger on Human Misjudgment

Charlie Munger gave a speech at Harvard Law School in 1995. Here’s some notes:

 

Irrationality is patterned and there was no theory to deal with it back in the day, but Munger created his own system of psychology, partly by casual reading, but largely by personal experiences

Economics is always behavioral, it’s fairly clear that all reality has to respect all other reality. Inconsistencies have to be resolved and if anything valid in psychology, economics has to recognize it and vice versa. People working on this fringe between economics and psychology are right there

DENIAL: Mothers of the most obvious criminals that man could ever diagnose, all think they are innocent. This is simple denial. When reality is too simple to bear, we distort it until it’s bearable

AGENCY COSTS: Psychological tendencies work largely on a subconscious level. Persian messenger syndrome still exists. CEO’s of companies still don’t want to hear the bad news.

Informational inefficiency: Normally when you raise prices, demand comes down, but sometimes it goes the other way.

Consistency and commitment tendency: What you think may change what you do, but perhaps even more importantly, what you do will change what you think. “You might say that everyone knows that, but let me tell you, they don’t”

SOCIAL PROOF: Henry Kaufman and Malcolm Gladwell have talked about this before and they gave an example of Kitty Genovese, where 50 people looked while she was slowly murdered. What happened was social proof. Big businesses get into waves of social proof. An oil company acquires a fertilizer company, everyone else sees it and takes it as proof and go on a shopping spree as well; following steps. The stock market is like that. The price on the market are just like that; they act as social proof, they reflect what other people think, and that is very powerful.

Elegance: There is a saying in mathematics that –“the true beauty of a proof lies in its elegance”. Some economists and mathematicians get so caught up in the math and the fact that it’s so elegant makes it hard to move away from. But as Keynes wrote –“Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”. The models were precisely wrong

Contrast caused distortion: “If you throw a frog in hot water, it will jump out, but if you put it in room temperature water and just slowly turn the heat up, the frog will die there. “

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CSFB: Capital Allocation Whitepaper

[Why should value determine whether a management team is living up to its responsibility? There are two

reasons. The first is that companies must compete. A company that is allocating its resources wisely will

ultimately prevail over a competitor that is allocating its resources foolishly. The second is that inputs have an

opportunity cost, or the value of the next best alternative. Unless an input is going to its best and highest use,

it is underperforming relative to its opportunity cost.

 

Capital allocation is a dynamic process, so the correct answer to most questions is, “It depends.” Sometimes

acquiring makes sense and other times divesting is the better alternative. There are times to issue equity and

times to retire it. Because the components that determine price and value are changing constantly, so too

must the assessments that a CEO makes. As Buffett says, “The first law of capital allocation—whether the

money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases—is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another.”3

 

The message here should be clear. A decision isn’t good just because someone in the organization can justify

it or because some other company is doing it. Proper capital allocation requires a sharp analytical framework

and independence of mind.

 

Internal financing represents a larger percentage of the total source of capital for companies in the U.S. than

for companies in other developed countries. For example, internal financing has been about 70 percent of the

total source for the United Kingdom, 66 percent for Germany, 55 percent for France, and 50 percent for

Japan.9 The ratio of internal financing to the total source of capital tends to correlate with the underlying return

on invested capital for the country. A country with a high ROIC can fund a higher percentage of its

investments with internally-generated cash than a country with a low ROIC.

 

The academic research supports the notion that capital allocation is challenging and that growth is not

inherently good. But we must keep in mind that context is very important. Recall that the correct answer to

almost every capital allocation question is, “It depends.”

 

How should companies assess the merit of an M&A deal? Mark Sirower, a consultant at Deloitte, suggests

that acquirers use the following formula:

Net present value of the deal = present value of the synergies – premium

 

Cost synergies are much more reliable than revenue synergies. About one-third of the executives surveyed

said that their company achieved all or more of the anticipated cost synergy, while one-quarter of the

companies overestimated their cost synergy by 25 percent or more. But roughly 70 percent of mergers fail to

deliver the anticipated revenue synergy. The most common challenges companies cite for synergy realization

include delays in implementing planned actions, underestimation of costs and complexities, and flat-out

overestimation of synergies]

 

 

 

via: CS

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Monday, August 11, 2014

World Ship Building countries[infographic]

 

 

Via: Economist

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Saturday, August 9, 2014

Weekend Links

How a password changed my life. https://medium.com/@manicho/how-a-password-changed-my-life-7af5d5f28038 …
Paul Singer Will Make Argentina Pay http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/218209-paul-singer-will-make-argentina-pay …
I'm Dan Ariely, Author and Professor, and This Is How I Work http://lifehacker.com/im-dan-ariely-author-and-professor-and-this-is-how-i-1615748781/+andyoooo …
In search of the good business http://www.economist.com/news/business/21611103-second-time-its-120-year-history-unilever-trying-redefine-what-it-means-be?fsrc=rss%7Cbus …
A brief history of self gratification: Me, Myself, and I by Stephen Greenblatt https://www.readability.com/articles/yd7ghjnc …
Unfortunate Realities of the Investment Business http://awealthofcommonsense.com/unfortunate-realities-investment-business/ …
How to Scare Yourself Stupid http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/05/how-to-scare-yourself-stupid.aspx …
Koch brothers: Covert Operations New yorker https://www.readability.com/articles/pmx9rlgv …
Cashew Juice, the Apple of Pepsi’s Eye http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/09/business/international/cashew-juice-the-apple-of-pepsis-eye.html …
How Libya Blew Billions and Its Best Chance at Democracy http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/218121-how-libya-blew-billions-and-its-best-chance-at-democracy …
Lies We Tell Kids http://paulgraham.com/lies.html#f6n
Incredible writing: Roxanne Gay: "What We Hunger For" http://rdd.me/bxzsatp7 via @readability
Correlation does not even imply correlation http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/04/correlation-even-imply-correlation/ …
Thirty Things I’ve Learned https://medium.com/things-ive-written/thirty-things-ive-learned-482765ee3503 …
Incredible writing: Pigeon Wars http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/15/magazine/15pigeons.html?_r=2&sq=jon%20mooallem&st=cse&scp=11&pagewanted=print& … NY MAG
22 Brilliant Insights From Richard Branson http://www.businessinsider.com/quotes-from-richard-branson-2014-7 …
The Crooked Ladder - gladwell http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/08/11/crooked-ladder …
Ford’s Epic Gamble: The inside story http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/f-150-fords-epic-gamble/ …
A Response to Lowenstein’s Searching for Rational Investors In a Perfect Storm http://blogs.law.uiowa.edu/jcl/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/KLARMAN-FINAL.pdf …
"Coke Confronts Its Big Fat Problem" http://rdd.me/kpndfx3f via Businessweek




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Friday, August 8, 2014

Paul Graham: Speaking vs. writing

 

Being a really good speaker is not merely orthogonal to having good ideas, but in many ways pushes you in the opposite direction. For example, when I give a talk I usually write it out beforehand. I know that's a mistake; I know delivering a prewritten talk makes it harder to engage with an audience. The way to get the attention of an audience is to give them your full attention, and when you're delivering a prewritten talk your attention is always divided between the audience and the talk—even if you've memorized it. If you want to engage an audience it's better to start with no more than an outline of what you want to say and ad lib the individual sentences. But if you do that you could spend no more time thinking about each sentence than it takes to say it. [2] Occasionally the stimulation of talking to a live audience makes you think of new things, but in general this is not going to generate ideas as well as writing does, where you can spend as long on each sentence as you want.

 

Via: PaulG

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Monday, August 4, 2014

On the importance of unlikable female protagonists

The most uncomfortable aspect of Gone Girl is the book's honesty and how desperately similar many of us likely are to Nick and Amy the ways they love and hate each other. The truth hurts. It hurts, it hurts, it hurts. When we finally begin to see the truth of Amy, she says, of the night she met Nick, "That night at the Brooklyn party, I was playing the girl who was in style, the girl a man like Nick wants: the Cool Girl. Men always say that as the defining compliment, don't they? She's a cool girl. Being the Cool Girl means I am a hot, brilliant, funny woman who adores football, poker, dirty jokes, and burping, who plays video games, drinks cheap beer, loves threesomes and anal sex, and jams hotdogs into her mouth like she's hosting the world's biggest culinary gang bang while somehow maintaining a size 2, because Cool Girls are above all hot. Hot and understanding… Men actually think this girl exists. Maybe they're fooled because so many women are willing to pretend to be this girl."

"This is what is so rarely said about unlikable women in fiction — that they aren't pretending, that they won't or can't pretend to be someone they are not. They have neither the energy for it, nor the desire. They don't have the willingness of a May Welland to play the part demanded of her. In Gone Girl, Amy talks about the temptation of being the woman a man wants but ultimately she doesn't give in to that temptation to be "the girl who likes every fucking thing he likes and doesn't ever complain." Unlikable women refuse to give in to that temptation. They are, instead, themselves. They accept the consequences of their choices and those consequences become stories worth reading."

via :buzzfeed
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Sunday, August 3, 2014

Weekend Links

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